Sunday, April 13, 2008

Voting

Most people think that voting is an excercise when you cast a ballot, and thats true.

But a harsher reality of voting occurs when you spend or earn money. I work, earn money, and vote, not only with my taxes, but also my purchases.

Purchasing.
When in the process of purchasing you must consider where the money goes. When I bought my house in 2007..I bought from an elderly woman who had a renter. Why? Well, the use of the funds to unlock the house also funded not one, but three other local homes.
1. The rental I abandoned.
2. The previous owners new residence.
3. The renters new residence.

Why is that significant?

The votes that were cast in the purchase of a home had a three part effect.

Now, bring it back to everyday purchasing....the things that you consume with earned income has an effect on the supply chain of the producing country. If you consume American, America will recover. If you purchase thingies, purchase them from American who already own the thingy. Or from American manufacturing the produces the thingy.

That vote will take the greatest precedence in the recovery.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

dont ponder the madness

A relatively safe investment strategy for the next five years.

Vanguard 500 Index VFINX : 10%
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index VEIEX :15%
Vanguard European Stock Index VEURX : 2 - 5%
Vanguard Extended Market Index VEXMX : 10%
Vanguard High-Yield Corporate VWEHX : 10%
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities VIPSX :10%
Vanguard Long-Term U.S. Treasury VUSTX :10%
Vanguard Pacific Stock Index VPACX : 17-20%
Vanguard Small Cap Growth VISGX : 2 -5%
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index VISVX : 2-5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX :2-5%

Vanguard is relatively cheap, this combination has given a 22% annual
rate of return over the last 5 years.

Im ready to overweight Asia. long side on big meltdowns...they are
coming. The FXP is simply too dangerous for me, your looking for the
black swans, could be white swan. Thats upside.

China's tryin to be on watch. How many Chinese nationals know about
the weird torch protests? However, I do not think boycott is on the
table.

I know when we started I said only 5 stocks, but we gotta get some
exposure...

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.myvideos&MyToken=a6972a30-61dd-40a1-8dd7-9ee4b20078c9

fun stuff?

“…An executive who works with a big Icelandic bank recalls: “Upon entering the bar I was approached by one of the hedge fund managers. He informed me that all people in this party – except for him, of course – were shorting Iceland.” The executive says the fund manager described Iceland’s profit-making potential as the “second coming of Christ”.

“As dinner progressed – some people actually decided not to eat at all but just sit at the bar – and more drinks were downed, the conversation and questions started to get more hostile and short positions openly declared,” the executive says….

The suspicion is that speculators exerted undue pressure on the illiquid CDS market in the knowledge that the wider the spread went, the more fear of a banking collapse would contaminate the stock and currency markets. There are also concerns about the way rumours were spread about the alleged reliance of Iceland’s banks on internet deposits, which triggered reports in UK newspapers that such deposits could be withdrawn rapidly…..”

FT
http://tinyurl.com/57kny8

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Russ Winter, this is for you.

If securitization of FCB’s capital outflows is execarbating the inflationary pressures in Emerging CUB…and if the quants using 30 years of bond theory programming, exacerbate emerging market commodity markets…

looks like a bad circle for the CB’s.

Securitization wrapped in bond theory surrounded by sacred cows of dollar hegeonomy?

I’m not sure if thats viable going forward if the steerage in the USS Titanic start looking for a way out.

Irrational Markets

Investment theory that is working (its called fast money):
Go Long Short (this sums up the FXP,SRS,SKF,SDS)
Go Short Long (this sums up GM, DOW, basically all individual equities)

this is backwards, and irrational.

if you are not playing this game, the systems will start reverse and rational prices will come back to the marketplace.

Slow money theory: invest for the long term event horizon, in safe stable economies, and companies that have have sustainable durable advantage.

But man its fun and exciting to play FAST MONEY. I need your brains to help me help you, and I cannot do that unless you intereact with me, blow it up, call me out, COMPETE!

Make no mistake, I plagerize all the other blogs, and you know who you are.

test the marketplace, your mind, and above all else...humble yourself, do good works, and simply play by the same rules as those before you.

new public forum

Research
Posulate
Opine
Engage
Comment